CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SAT 05/02 - 06Z SUN 06/02 2005
ISSUED: 04/02 19:52Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the SW Mediterranean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Upper trough ATTM between Iceland and the British Isles ... will continue to dig SE and merge with S Iberian upper low during Saturday. Low geopotential is expected to persist over SE Europe ... with relatively strong vort max slowly crossing the Adriatic Sea during the day.

DISCUSSION

...Mediterranean ...
TSTMS should continue to increase in coverage during Friday night ... and spread across the SW Mediterranean on Saturday. Low CAPE and shear suggest that severe threat will be minimal. Slight chances for an isolated lightning strike or two also seems to exist with shallow ... and fairly high-based convection over the Adriatic Sea beneath the upper low. Expected coverage is too limited however for a TSTM outlook for this region.

...E Atlantic ... W british Isles...
An isolated TSTM or two may also occur with cellular convection grazing the W British Isles beneath digging Atlantic trough ... severe threat and coverage of TSTMS should be too low for categorical/TSTM outlook though.

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